A verbal update is to be provided on the surveillance of the data and intelligence concerning COVID-19.
Minutes:
Witnesses:
Dr Naheed Rana - Public Health Consultant, Surrey County Council
Ruth Hutchinson - Director of Public Health, Surrey County Council
Key points raised in the discussion:
1. The Public Health Consultant (SCC) noted:
· the Covid-19 daily monitoring, intelligence and surveillance information; reviewing triggers and escalations, and the epidemiology and situational reports.
· the epi curve of Covid-19 cases in Surrey whereby there were 150,651 cases in total up to 9 November 2021, cases continued to be monitored and the graph showed the number of cases as well as the tracking of the seven-day averages and the impact of the three lockdowns and the Government’s roadmap culminating in all restrictions eased.
· a graph showing the Covid-19 cases in Surrey between 15 June - 15 November 2021 where cases rose in conjunction with start of the school term in September and fell in conjunction with the October half term, rising post half term; the school age population group were driving infection rates.
· the number of cases and rates per 100,000 population in the most recent fourteen-day period 2-15 November 2021 and detailed the most recent seven-day period 9-15 November 2021 where the rate for Surrey was 464.2 per 100,000 population or 5,570 cases - which was above the England and South East rates.
· Tandridge, Elmbridge and Mole Valley had the highest rankings compared with nationally and in Surrey, Tandridge’s rate in the most recent seven-day period was 600.8 per 100,000 population compared to Woking at 370.4 per 100,000 population.
· the ranking of seven-day case rate for Lower-tier local authorities in England, 9-15 November 2021, Elmbridge and Tandridge were positioned at ninth and tenth.
· that the number and distribution of cases fluctuated weekly, there were agreed actions and notifications to tackle the rates in Surrey - noting the work of the Communications team (SCC), colleagues involved in testing and vaccinations, and support provided by other partners such as Surrey’s borough and district councils.
· that the publicly available infographic ‘Surrey Covid-19 Summary: Cases and Rates’ was updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays and the recent infographic indicated an increasing trajectory with 800 cases per day on average.
· the publicly available weekly Friday intelligence summary, keeping Members and residents regularly informed.
· that the Delta Plus variant that was currently in the whole of the UK, although at low numbers in Surrey and Delta remained the dominant variant in the UK.
· the Covid-19 cases per 100,000 by age group in Surrey between 14 October-6 November 2021 shown through a heat map, highlighting an increase in cases for school age groups or 10-19 year olds - which was consistent in most of the boroughs and districts - and an increase in cases in 40 to 49 year olds; the slight increase in 60 plus year olds had stabilised.
· a heat map of Surrey and surrounding areas: weekly case rates per 100,000 population by local authority between 5 October-15 November 2021; the fluctuation of cases was shown and culminated in the current high rates.
· there had been a slow but not significant increase in hospital admissions.
· that vaccination uptake across Surrey was good, where there was lower uptake the data - including IMD (Index of Multiple Deprivation) deciles - was triangulated with cases and was shared across response groups and district and borough colleagues to ensure targeted actions.
· the cases, admissions and deaths in Surrey were closely tracked; there was nothing significant to report.
· the next steps which were to continue with the engagement and escalation processes, to closely monitor the data and to work with partners to support communication and to manage outbreaks.
2. Referring to the ranking of seven-day case rates for lower-tier local authorities in England for the most recent week, a Board member queried what London was doing now as it was ranked at the bottom half of the scale - with lower infection rates - compared to being at the top end of the scale throughout the pandemic.
· In response, the Public Health Consultant (SCC) explained that there were different hypotheses such as the emergence of the Alpha variant in London before other areas which could mean a level of acquired immunity to the dominant Delta variant, noting that the vaccination rates in London were not higher than in Surrey, population behaviour and reporting rates might be a factor and noted the excellent communications campaigns across London.
· The Director of Public Health (SCC) provided assurance in noting that Surrey was working with regional colleagues including with London, theorising that the shift in rates was possibly due to a combination of reasons as noted above and that there was no clear answer.
3. The Board member added that as the large proportion of Surrey’s positive cases were in school-age children, asked whether there was data on the compliance of rapid lateral flow testing in schools both in Surrey and London.
· In response, the Public Health Consultant (SCC) commented that Surrey was working closely with London colleagues and those respective London areas did not appear to be doing anything different to Surrey.
RESOLVED:
The Board noted the verbal update and presentation.
Actions/further information to be provided:
None.