A verbal update is to be provided on the surveillance of the data and intelligence concerning COVID-19.
Minutes:
Witnesses:
Tom Bourne - Public Health Analyst Team Leader,Surrey County Council
Ruth Hutchinson - Director of Public Health, Surrey County Council
Key points raised in the discussion:
1. The Public Health Analyst Team Leader (SCC) noted that:
· Since the last meeting of the Board there had been significant changes to data availability as for example since the end of the provision of free universal symptomatic and asymptomatic testing for the public on 1 April 2022, recorded cases had become a less reliable measure of the prevalence of Covid-19 and instead the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey, and measures such as hospital admissions and deaths were used.
· Recorded cases of Covid-19 in Surrey over the course of the pandemic were just under 405,000, there were large drops in the number of recorded cases throughout March and since 1 April 2022.
· The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey showed the estimated percentage of the England population testing positive for Covid-19, the Survey asked people to test at fixed points once weekly whether or not they were experiencing symptoms. That up to the week ending 9 April 2022, cases remained high equivalent to 1 in 14 being infected; there had however been a decrease of cases in the last fortnight of data from 7.6% to 6.9% of the population.
· The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey showed the estimated percentage of the population testing positive for Covid-19 by region in England between 27 February to 9 April 2022, the lowest percentages were in the East of England, London and the South East - at 6.4% - and the North East had the highest percentage at 7.9% and that looked to be increasing.
· The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey showed the estimated percentage of the population testing positive for Covid-19 by age group in England between 27 February to 9 April 2022, the lowest percentage was 4.7% for those in school years 7 to 11 at secondary school; the highest percentage was 7% for those aged between 50 - 69 years and 7.2% for those aged 70 years plus - both percentages were plateauing.
· A graph on the weekly number of people reporting Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests and PCR positivity in Surrey up to 12 April 2022 was shown whereby the number of PCR tests completed per week was around 15,000 compared to 50,000 tests per week in late January and 100,000 tests a week around Christmas.
· A graph on the weekly number of people reporting Lateral Flow Device (LFD) tests in Surrey up to 18 April 2022 was shown whereby numbers continued to fall steadily.
· A graph on Google Mobility data for London and Surrey, showing the percentage change compared to pre-pandemic baseline up to 15 April 2022 - minus the latest week for the Easter holiday - was shown whereby time spent in the workplace decreased by 25% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
· A graph on the patients admitted to hospital in the South East up to 17 April 2022 was shown whereby hospital admissions for Covid-19 were decreasing although they had been at a high level throughout March; and whilst not shown on the graph, the percentage of people in hospital with Covid-19 and being treated primarily for Covid-19 was also decreasing.
· A graph on Covid-19 deaths in Surrey up to 17 April 2022 was shown - deaths within 28 days of a positive test - whereby deaths remained steady in Surrey throughout 2022 at between two and five deaths per day - higher than 2021 generally.
· A graph on all deaths - comparison to 5 year 2015-2019 average was shown whereby in 2022 there were fewer deaths in Surrey than expected.
· The Public Health team (SCC) continued to meet weekly to review all the available surveillance, it was important to recognise that data was becoming increasingly less granular.
· The Public Health team (SCC) published the COVID-19 Intelligence Summary publicly on Surrey County Council’s website once a week on a Tuesday.
2. The Chairman welcomed the data presented andhighlighted that the absence of granular Covid-19 data used for the past eighteen to twenty-four months was noticeable, she encouraged residents to look at the data on Surrey County Council's website as it remained important.
3. A Board member noted that it was interesting to see the graph showing the 25% reduction in workplace attendance and that graph also showed that retail and recreation whilst still slightly below usual levels, were recovering which was positive for town centres.
4. The Board member queried whether analysis had been undertaken concerning the fewer deaths in 2022, for example whether that was linked with flu infections and people being more cautious.
- In response, the Public Health Analyst Team Leader (SCC) noted that although fewer deaths than expected, there was not a huge reduction and the numbers were roughly in line with the forecasted data.
- The Director of Public Health (SCC) explained that excess deaths were analysed on an ongoing basis and looking at deaths over a long period of time as opposed to focusing on slight reductions in the short-term was crucial. She noted the challenge of interpreting the most recent data particularly as Covid-19 was extraordinary and noted that it was vital to continue to monitor and be transparent about Surrey’s excess death rate.
RESOLVED:
The Board noted the verbal update and presentation.
Actions/further information to be provided:
None.